The Climate and Energy Outlook 2026, published by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL)) ahead of Prinsjesdag, paints a sobering picture of the Dutch energy transition. Yet beneath the cautious projections, the Miljoenennota 2027 reveals substantial government commitments. We have identified three positive takeaways that provide hopeful insights for the energy and industrial sectors. That said, the current cabinet governs with a minority coalition, so its budget proposals still require parliamentary support, the commitments outlined below are therefore not yet set in stone.
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#1. Offshore wind: An engine of the Dutch energy transition
The Climate and Energy Outlook 2026 shows that the growing share of renewable energy in the Netherlands is driven by offshore wind. Installed offshore wind capacity is projected to roughly double under the Dutch baseline scenario for greenhouse gas emissions. The introduction of Contracts for Difference (CfDs), two-sided price support mechanisms, are expected [is expected] to drive wind capacity materially higher. PBL does note that the effect of CfDs will become visible mainly after 2030, given the long processing times inherent in offshore wind development. The government's investment overview for 2026–2035 includes a dedicated investment line for offshore wind of €5.9 billion. If tender timelines hold and CfDs are deployed as planned, this could close the gap between PBL's baseline projection and the higher-capacity scenarios.
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#2. Additional funding for ccs: Public capital to the rescue for Aramis
The Aramis CCS project, critical to Dutch emission reduction targets, has been delayed. PBL warns that this major infrastructure project for transport and storage of CO₂ beneath the North Sea seabed will therefore contribute substantially to emission reductions only after 2030. The Miljoenennota 2027 addresses this with a concrete commitment: on top of earlier contributions, the cabinet has made an additional €1.3 billion available for the Aramis project to mitigate the risk that demand for CO₂ storage capacity fails to ramp up quickly enough to support a positive investment decision. Other CCS projects would similarly benefit from government support.
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#3. Unlocking the energy transition: over €10 billion to tackle infrastructure bottlenecks
The PBL warns that the development of key energy infrastructure is falling behind schedule across several areas. Grid expansion, in particular, is proceeding more slowly than planned. The Miljoenennota 2027 signals that the government intends to act on these bottlenecks with over €10 billion in additional investments across the 2026 - 2035 period, targeting grid reinforcement, hydrogen infrastructure, and heat networks. Reducing grid congestion is named as an explicit policy goal, alongside a broader commitment to tackling regulatory bottlenecks and lengthy permitting processes so that businesses have room to invest and grow.
Want to learn more?
Wondering how the €5.9 billion offshore wind investment line or the additional €1.3 billion for Aramis could affect your project pipeline? The developments in the Climate and Energy Outlook and the Miljoenennota 2027 directly affect investment decisions across the energy and industrial sectors. Our Energy, Transition & Infrastructure team can help you map the opportunities and navigate the regulatory landscape. Contact us to discuss what these developments mean for your business.
